2025年三季度中国房地产市场总结与趋势展望报告

Core Insights - The report indicates that the recovery of China's real estate market is evident in core cities, but a differentiated pattern will continue to persist [1][7] - The overall market remains in a critical phase of "stabilizing after a decline," with ongoing policy support necessary for sustained recovery [1][7] Market Supply and Demand - From January to August 2025, the national sales area of commercial housing reached 570 million square meters, with a sales amount of 5.5 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year decline that has narrowed compared to last year, although the decline has expanded since the second quarter [2][15] - Existing home sales have outperformed new homes, with existing home sales area reaching 200 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 11.7%, reflecting a growing preference for delivery certainty among buyers [2][15] - In key cities, the transaction volume of new homes showed a slight year-on-year decline in the first three quarters, but a recovery was noted in September due to increased supply [2][16] Price Trends - New home prices in 100 cities increased by 1.54% from January to August, while second-hand home prices fell by 5.08%, indicating a divergence in price trends between new and second-hand homes [4][21][22] - The average price of new homes in August was 16,910 yuan per square meter, while the average price of second-hand homes was 13,481 yuan per square meter, marking a continuous decline for 40 months [4][21][22] Land Market Dynamics - The land market exhibited extreme differentiation, with residential land transfer fees in 300 cities increasing by approximately 13% year-on-year, while the area sold decreased by 8.5% [5][23] - Core cities are seeing a concentration of land acquisition, with the top 20 cities accounting for 61% of the national land transfer fees, reflecting a focus on high-quality land in major urban areas [5][25] Development Investment - From January to August 2025, national real estate development investment amounted to 6 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.9%, indicating ongoing pressure on the development side [6][14] Future Outlook - The market is expected to continue its differentiated pattern, with core cities benefiting from new quality land entering the market, while other cities will focus on inventory reduction [7][13] - Policy measures are anticipated to strengthen in the fourth quarter, with a focus on stabilizing the market and promoting reasonable housing demand [7][12]