Insights Into Alcoa (AA) Q3: Wall Street Projections for Key Metrics

Core Insights - Alcoa (AA) is expected to report a quarterly loss of -$0.07 per share, a decline of 112.3% year-over-year, with revenues forecasted at $3.02 billion, reflecting a 4.1% increase compared to the previous year [1] Earnings Estimates - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised 26.4% higher in the last 30 days, indicating a reevaluation by analysts [1][2] - Changes in earnings estimates are crucial for predicting investor reactions, as empirical research shows a strong correlation between earnings estimate revisions and short-term stock performance [2] Key Metrics Projections - Total sales for Aluminum are projected at $2.11 billion, a 16.8% increase from the prior-year quarter [4] - Third-party sales for Bauxite are expected to reach $138.59 million, indicating a 49% increase year-over-year [4] - Third-party sales for Alumina are estimated at $813.43 million, reflecting an 18.9% decline compared to the previous year [4] Price and Shipment Estimates - Intersegment sales for Aluminum are expected to be $4.50 million, a 10% decrease year-over-year [5] - The average realized third-party price per metric ton of alumina is projected at $376.78, down from $485.00 in the same quarter last year [5] - The average realized third-party price per metric ton of aluminum is estimated at $3340.11, compared to $2877.00 in the same quarter of the previous year [6] - Third-party alumina shipments are expected to reach 2,195 thousand metric tons, up from 2,052 thousand metric tons year-over-year [6] Production Estimates - Third-party aluminum shipments are projected at 627 thousand metric tons, slightly down from 638 thousand metric tons in the previous year [7] - Intersegment alumina shipments are expected to be 1,104 thousand metric tons, compared to 1,027 thousand metric tons last year [7] - Alumina production is projected at 2,414 thousand metric tons, down from 2,435 thousand metric tons in the same quarter last year [8] - Aluminum production is expected to reach 583 thousand metric tons, up from 559 thousand metric tons in the same quarter last year [8] - Bauxite production is projected at 10 million metric tons, compared to 9 million metric tons in the same quarter last year [9] Stock Performance - Alcoa shares have returned +13.5% over the past month, outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite, which changed by +0.7% [10] - Alcoa holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating expected performance in line with the overall market [10]