美联储10月降息成定局，矛盾数据影响下，2026年政策走向成谜

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is preparing to cut interest rates again this month due to a weak labor market overshadowing inflation concerns, but this balance may not last long [1][2]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - The Fed is expected to lower rates by 25 basis points on October 29, as indicated by Powell's warning about a worsening job market potentially leading to higher unemployment [1][2]. - Futures market traders anticipate another rate cut in December, aligning with the Fed officials' median forecast from last month [1]. - A significant number of Fed officials, 8 out of 19, predict no further rate cuts next year due to inflation remaining above target for 54 consecutive months and ongoing tariff pressures [1][3]. Group 2: Employment Data and Economic Outlook - Recent months have shown weak job growth, with early data being significantly revised down, challenging the perception of a strong labor market [2]. - Powell noted that a decline in job vacancies could likely lead to an increase in the unemployment rate, indicating a fragile balance in the labor market [2]. - The lack of large-scale layoffs suggests a low-recruitment, low-layoff economy, but the potential for rising unemployment remains a concern [2]. Group 3: Inflation Concerns - Inflation has been persistently high, with 54 months of being at or below target levels, raising concerns among Fed officials [3]. - The recent trade tensions and potential for increased tariffs add to inflation risks, influencing the cautious stance of several Fed officials regarding future rate cuts [3]. - The push for rate cuts has been primarily led by Fed governors who prioritize employment concerns, while some officials advocate for a more aggressive approach [3]. Group 4: Future Policy Uncertainty - Economic data is mixed, showing resilience in growth and consumer spending, while hiring has slowed down, complicating the Fed's decision-making [4]. - The upcoming end of Powell's term in May 2024 adds uncertainty to the policy outlook, with potential changes in leadership influencing future rate decisions [4]. - The balance of employment and inflation risks will ultimately shape the policy debate leading into 2026, possibly resulting in more cautious actions than currently anticipated by the market [4].