“就算美国和所有盟友把稀土当做国家级项目，赶上中国至少要5年”

Core Viewpoint - China's recent export controls on rare earths have significantly impacted the fragile trade truce with the U.S., highlighting China's dominance in the global supply of critical minerals and its leverage in trade negotiations with the U.S. [1][5] Group 1: China's Rare Earth Dominance - China accounts for approximately 70% of the global supply of metals used in electric vehicle motors, positioning itself as a critical player in the rare earth market [2] - The country has developed a substantial talent pool and advanced R&D networks in the rare earth sector, making it difficult for the U.S. and its allies to catch up, with estimates suggesting a minimum of five years to do so [2][4] - Rare earths are essential for various technologies, including smartphones, solar panels, electric vehicles, and military equipment, underscoring their strategic importance [1][2] Group 2: Impact on U.S.-China Trade Relations - The recent export restrictions by China are seen as a strategic move to pressure the U.S. for favorable trade agreements, disrupting the U.S. negotiation timeline [1][2] - Analysts suggest that while the U.S. has options to respond, such as proposing tariff reductions, the effectiveness of these measures may be limited compared to the impact of China's rare earth supply control [4][7] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary has indicated that China's actions represent a confrontation with the global community, hinting at potential coordinated responses from U.S. allies [7] Group 3: Economic Implications - Despite a reported over 30% year-on-year decline in China's key mineral exports, analysts believe this will not significantly harm the Chinese economy, as rare earths hold more strategic than economic value [4] - The recent measures are compared to the U.S. Foreign Direct Product Rule, indicating a shift in trade dynamics and China's intent to strengthen its bargaining position in upcoming negotiations [5]