中介信息铺网分析：联邦政府“停摆”的真相：美经济数据断供影响有多大？

Group 1 - The government shutdown that began on October 1, 2025, is primarily due to the conflict between the Democratic Party's insistence on extending healthcare tax credits and the Republican Party's demand for cuts to clean energy project funding [1] - The shutdown has led to a complete halt in data release from key agencies such as the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Bureau of Economic Analysis, which has significant implications for economic decision-making [1][2] - The absence of critical economic data, such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and non-farm payroll figures, has left the Federal Reserve in a position of uncertainty regarding interest rate decisions, with estimates suggesting a drop in the likelihood of a rate cut from 60% to 30% [2] Group 2 - The economic impact of the shutdown is severe, with the Treasury Department reporting daily losses of $15 billion, and each additional week of the shutdown potentially reducing annual GDP growth by 0.1 percentage points [2] - The lack of data is causing decision-making paralysis in the manufacturing sector and delaying agricultural activities, while small businesses face tighter lending conditions due to economic uncertainty [2] - Retailers like Walmart are experiencing a slowdown in same-store sales growth, which has decreased by 1.8 percentage points due to the effects of the shutdown [2] Group 3 - The disruption in U.S. data availability is causing global economic policy to become reactive rather than proactive, with countries like Japan and the Eurozone struggling to adjust their monetary policies without reliable U.S. data [3][4] - The volatility in financial markets is evident, with the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds experiencing increased fluctuations and the U.S. dollar index showing erratic movements due to uncertainty surrounding economic policies [3] - The credibility of the U.S. dollar is being undermined, as central banks are beginning to reconsider their dollar reserves in light of the reliability issues stemming from the data shutdown [4][5] Group 4 - The crisis highlights the systemic risks associated with global economic dependence on a single country's data supply, emphasizing the urgent need for a diversified data reference system and collaborative governance mechanisms [5][6] - If the U.S. continues to use data agencies as political bargaining chips, it risks losing not only short-term economic growth but also its long-term leadership in global economic governance [6]