老铺黄金(6181.HK)：金价之上 价值为王 古法工艺有望持续引领消费热潮

Core Viewpoint - The company, Laopuhuangjin, has demonstrated significant revenue and profit growth in the first half of 2025, driven by its unique craftsmanship and cultural narrative, positioning itself as a leader in the traditional gold jewelry market in China and abroad [1][2]. Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company's revenue reached 12.354 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 251% [1]. - Offline store revenue accounted for 10.736 billion RMB (86.9% of total revenue), growing by 243.2% year-on-year, while online platform revenue was 1.618 billion RMB (13.1% of total revenue), increasing by 313.3% [1]. - Gross profit margin was 38.09%, down 3.24 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to price adjustments not keeping pace with rising gold prices [2]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.268 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 285.76% [2]. - Basic earnings per share were 13.38 RMB, up 225.55% year-on-year [2]. Operational Efficiency - The company has improved its operational efficiency, with inventory turnover days decreasing from 195 days in 2024 to 150 days in the reporting period [2]. - Trade receivables turnover days reduced from 25 days in 2024 to 12 days, indicating enhanced cash flow management [2]. Product Strategy - Laopuhuangjin has diversified its product offerings beyond traditional jewelry to include cultural and lifestyle products, creating a unique market position with minimal direct competition [2]. - The company has developed over 2,100 original designs and holds numerous patents, emphasizing its commitment to innovation [2]. Market Expansion - In May 2025, the company raised 2.698 billion HKD through a share placement to support business development and expand its store network in mainland China [3]. - The company plans to enhance its presence in high-end commercial centers across various cities, supporting existing store expansions and same-store sales growth [3]. Industry Outlook - The gold consumption in China decreased by 3.54% year-on-year in H1 2025, with gold jewelry consumption down 26%, yet high-value and well-designed products continue to perform well [4]. - The market for traditional gold jewelry is projected to reach approximately 421.4 billion RMB by 2028, with a compound annual growth rate of 21.8% [4]. Competitive Positioning - Laopuhuangjin's consumer overlap with major luxury brands like Louis Vuitton and Hermès is as high as 77.3%, reinforcing its high-end market positioning [5]. - The recent opening of a new store in Hong Kong's IFC has attracted significant customer interest, indicating strong demand for its products in international markets [5]. Future Projections - Revenue forecasts for Laopuhuangjin are 26.324 billion RMB, 33.793 billion RMB, and 40.045 billion RMB for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively [5]. - Expected earnings per share for the same period are projected at 29.61 RMB, 38.14 RMB, and 45.36 RMB, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 23.5x, 18.2x, and 15.3x [5].