债市 中长期布局正当时

Group 1 - The bond market has experienced multiple shifts in logic this year, with tightening liquidity in Q1 leading to adjustments in short-term bonds, followed by pressure release in long-term bonds as liquidity turned loose in Q2 [1] - The 10-year government bond yield has risen to around 1.75%, with support expected near 1.8% after a 10 basis point rate cut this year [1] - The upward movement in bond yields since Q3 has been primarily driven by non-fundamental factors, indicating significant pressure on the bond market despite the central bank's efforts to maintain liquidity [2] Group 2 - The macroeconomic narrative has improved, but the bond market is still facing substantial pressure, with a bear-steep yield curve indicating stability in short-term bonds while long-term bonds have seen larger adjustments [2] - Recent inflation data shows a narrowing decline in PPI to 2.3% year-on-year, while core CPI has increased by 1%, suggesting a potential bottoming out of inflation, although demand remains a critical factor for further increases [4] - The bond market's attractiveness has diminished this year, leading to a higher likelihood of new funds entering the stock market rather than the bond market, resulting in reduced incremental funds and declining stock scale [4] Group 3 - The central bank's potential reinitiation of government bond trading is anticipated, especially if the bond market enters an overshoot state, with expectations for such actions remaining high for the year [5][6] - The central bank's objectives for restarting bond trading include liquidity management, influencing interest rates, and supporting government bond issuance [6] - Observations from September indicate a reversal in the decline of household deposits, suggesting a shift in market dynamics that could impact M1 growth, which needs further monitoring [7]