With Nearly 500K Deliveries, Is Tesla Stock a Buy Before Q3 Earnings?

Core Viewpoint - Tesla is set to announce its Q3 2025 financial results on October 22, with the stock experiencing significant gains of over 35% in the last three months and approximately 80% in the last six months, reflecting positive sentiment around the company's performance and outlook [1]. Group 1: Delivery Performance - Tesla's Q3 delivery numbers exceeded expectations, with nearly 500,000 vehicles delivered (497,009 to be exact), representing a 7% year-over-year increase [2]. - The surge in demand can be attributed to the recently expired federal EV tax credit of $7,500, which ended in September, prompting customers to finalize purchases before the deadline [4]. Group 2: Financial Expectations - Analysts anticipate Tesla will report earnings of $0.41 per share for Q3, a decline from $0.62 in the same period last year, although stronger delivery numbers may lead to better-than-expected results [7]. - Improved production efficiency and a favorable product mix are expected to benefit Tesla, potentially offsetting challenges from a difficult pricing environment [8]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Risks - The recent stock price increase suggests that the market has already factored in many positive developments, indicating a risk of pullback if Q3 financials or guidance do not meet expectations [5]. - Options market data shows traders are preparing for a potential post-earnings swing of about 7.3%, slightly below Tesla's average move of around 9.6% over the last four quarters [6].