重磅利好！人民币强势回归，汇率创11个月新高

Core Viewpoint - The recent strengthening of the RMB against the USD has sparked discussions about the potential for a long-term appreciation cycle, driven by both internal and external factors [3][4][8]. External Factors - The risk of a U.S. economic recession has increased, leading the Federal Reserve to initiate a rate cut cycle, with a 25 basis point reduction announced on September 18, 2025 [4]. - The U.S. dollar index has declined significantly, down nearly 9% year-to-date, creating favorable conditions for non-USD currencies to appreciate [4]. Internal Factors - China's economy is showing signs of moderate recovery, with the core CPI rising 1.0% year-on-year, marking the first increase in 19 months [4]. - The strong performance of the A-share market has attracted international capital back to Chinese assets, increasing demand for the RMB [6]. - China's trade surplus and improved economic sentiment have provided fundamental support for the RMB [6][8]. Market Sentiment - There is a growing consensus among experts that the RMB may have entered a long-term appreciation cycle, although "two-way fluctuations" will likely become the norm rather than a one-sided appreciation [8][9]. - The relative economic advantages between China and the U.S. are expected to support the RMB's strength, as China is positioned to enter an upward economic phase while the U.S. faces a prolonged downturn [8][12]. Policy Outlook - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) aims to maintain a stable RMB exchange rate while allowing for market-driven fluctuations [9][11]. - Recent government measures, including the acceleration of new policy financial tools, are expected to bolster market confidence and support the RMB [11][12].