Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is set to hold a meeting on October 28-29, but the government shutdown has led to the absence of key economic data, creating a more ambiguous policy-making environment [1] - Fed officials are inclined to adopt a "slow and steady" approach under incomplete information, potentially lowering interest rates by 25 basis points to continue the easing cycle while avoiding directional errors [1][2] - Fed Chair Powell indicated that a prolonged shutdown could not only delay data releases but also impact data collection, making decision-making increasingly difficult [1] Group 2 - The lack of official data complicates the assessment of whether the labor market is weakening, demand is slowing, and the persistence of inflation shocks, according to Fed Governor Waller [1] - Local Fed voices reflect a cautious rate-cutting tone, with St. Louis Fed President Bullard suggesting support for a rate cut if labor market weakness continues and inflation expectations remain anchored, while cautioning against excessive easing before inflation is fully contained [1] - Boston Fed President Collins acknowledged that balancing inflation control and labor market easing is more challenging in the absence of data [2]
关键经济数据缺席 美联储“摸黑”前进 官员暗示10月将“谨慎降息”
Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-10-17 23:24