连续去库 “锂”面有变 价格拐点已至？

Core Viewpoint - Lithium carbonate futures have broken out of a prolonged consolidation phase, with the main contract reaching 76,840 yuan/ton, indicating a recovery from the decline observed in early September. The rise is attributed to marginal improvements in supply and demand fundamentals [2]. Supply Side - The supply side has shown signs of improvement, with increased production from certain mines alleviating concerns over supply uncertainty. Weekly lithium carbonate production reached approximately 21,100 tons as of October 17, marking a 431-ton increase from the previous week and setting a new historical high. Notably, production from salt lake sources grew by 7.2% [3]. - The resumption of operations at Zangge Mining on October 11 and ongoing resource verification in Jiangxi are expected to sustain high domestic lithium carbonate production, potentially exceeding 90,000 tons in October [3]. Demand Side - Demand for lithium carbonate remains robust, with significant growth in battery production and sales. In September, the combined production of power batteries and other batteries reached 151.2 GWh, reflecting an 8.3% month-on-month increase and a 35.4% year-on-year increase. Sales figures also showed strong performance, with a 9% month-on-month increase and a 42.2% year-on-year increase [3]. Market Dynamics - The current market is characterized by strong supply and demand dynamics. While supply is recovering, the demand side is performing even better, suggesting that lithium carbonate will continue to experience a depletion trend [3]. - There are uncertainties regarding key lithium mine supplies, particularly with the Ningde Times' Xianxiawo mining area, which has seen reduced inventory and lower operating rates at related smelting plants. This situation has led downstream companies to rely more on the futures market for securing raw materials, supporting the price increase of lithium carbonate [4]. Future Outlook - In the short term, the lithium carbonate market is expected to maintain a depletion trend and price increases due to the uncertain resumption timeline of the Ningde Times' mining area and stronger-than-expected seasonal demand. However, in the long term, significant price increases may attract more supply, and the overall supply-demand relationship is improving but not reversing [4][5]. - The expectation of reduced supply constraints has lessened, but the global lithium resource capacity is still in a release phase, which may exert pressure on the lithium carbonate fundamentals in the medium term [5].