数据背后藏玄机！汇率通胀双刃剑，中美博弈迎来关键转折点！

Core Insights - The economic gap between the US and China has widened, with US GDP reaching $14.93 trillion and China's at $9.19 trillion, a difference of $5.74 trillion [1] - The perception of China's economic slowdown may be misleading due to currency exchange rate fluctuations, as the depreciation of the RMB against the USD affects dollar-denominated GDP figures [3] - The US has experienced nominal GDP growth driven by inflation, while China's actual economic growth is significantly higher despite lower nominal GDP growth [5] Economic Performance Comparison - In the first half of 2025, the US core PCE price index increased by an annualized rate of 2.54%, contributing to nominal GDP growth, but real purchasing power has not improved correspondingly [3] - China's CPI rose only 0.5% year-on-year, while PPI was at -1.6%, indicating a stable economic environment with a real GDP growth rate of 5.3% [5] - The actual growth rate of China is more than double that of the US, with China achieving a 5.4% growth compared to the US's 2.0% in Q1 2025 [7] Industry Strength Comparison - China dominates in various industrial sectors, producing over 54% of the world's crude steel and 75% of lithium-ion batteries, while the US's industrial output is significantly lower [9] - The efficiency of China's industrial output is three times that of the US, producing double the industrial goods with only 65% of the GDP scale [9] - The potential for a reversal in economic dynamics exists, as the US may shift to a weaker dollar strategy, which could improve China's GDP figures when converted to USD [9][11] Long-term Economic Outlook - The competition between the US and China is fundamentally about real economic strength rather than mere numerical comparisons, with China benefiting from a complete industrial chain and a large domestic market [11] - The US faces structural issues with a high proportion of its economy being virtual, leading to concerns about the sustainability of its growth model [11] - Future advancements in technology, green transformation, and improvements in living standards will be crucial for determining the long-term winner in this economic rivalry [11]