油价跌势难止？花旗：俄乌局势缓和或致原油跌至50美元

Core Viewpoint - The potential easing of the Russia-Ukraine conflict could lead to a drop in oil prices to $50 per barrel, according to Citigroup strategist Eric Lee, which would accelerate the market's movement towards Citigroup's pessimistic forecast [1] Group 1: Oil Price Trends - Brent crude oil prices have decreased by approximately 18% this year and are currently trading near $61 per barrel, primarily due to anticipated supply surplus [1] - A predicted decline of about $10 per barrel in oil prices poses a threat to the shale oil industry, which requires higher prices than some state-owned exploration companies to sustain drilling activities [1] Group 2: Geopolitical Implications - Traders are closely monitoring the progress of high-level talks in the U.S. aimed at achieving a ceasefire, which could lead to Western countries easing restrictions on the Russian energy sector and halting drone strikes in Ukraine that have severely damaged Russian oil infrastructure [1] - The potential drop in oil prices raises questions about whether Saudi Arabia, as the de facto leader of OPEC, will take measures to protect oil prices or align with Washington's preference for lower prices [1] Group 3: Diplomatic Considerations - At lower oil price levels, there may be a higher willingness to use oil as a tool of foreign policy, as a price drop to $60 per barrel or lower could embolden the White House to take more aggressive actions that disrupt oil supply [1] - Conversely, if oil prices reach $80 per barrel, there may be less enthusiasm for taking actions against Iran or Russia that could lead to price spikes [1]