深夜突发！金价，大跳水

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by a combination of market sentiment, geopolitical tensions, and economic indicators, with a notable increase in demand for gold as a safe-haven asset amid rising uncertainties [2][3][4]. Market Analysis - Gold prices experienced a significant rise, with COMEX gold futures reaching nearly $4,400 per ounce before closing at $4,240.20, marking a weekly increase of over 8% [2][3]. - The market is currently assessing the implications of U.S. President Trump's more moderate stance on trade, which has contributed to a cooling of gold prices [3]. - Concerns regarding credit risks in U.S. regional banks have also prompted investors to seek refuge in gold, although these fears have not escalated significantly [3]. Technical Indicators - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for gold has surpassed 88, indicating an overbought condition, with historical patterns suggesting that such prolonged upward trends are rare [4]. - The current gold price movement shows signs of excessive deviation from the 200-week moving average, a situation that has historically required a market correction [4]. Demand Drivers - Gold has seen a cumulative increase of over 66% this year, driven by geopolitical tensions, expectations of interest rate cuts, and significant inflows into gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) [4][5]. - The SPDR Gold Trust reported its holdings have risen to 1,034.62 tons, the highest level since July 2022, reflecting strong investor interest [5]. Future Outlook - HSBC forecasts that the upward momentum for gold could continue until 2026, supported by strong central bank purchases and ongoing concerns about U.S. fiscal health [5][6]. - Bank of America analysts suggest that the current low allocation to gold among investors, combined with expectations of further monetary easing, could lead to significant price increases, potentially reaching $6,000 by spring next year [6].