未来3-5年，我国房价还会暴跌吗？不妨来看看楼市这三方的态度

Core Viewpoint - The future of housing prices in China over the next 3-5 years is expected to show moderate adjustments rather than significant declines, influenced by the attitudes of the government, developers, and homebuyers [1][12]. Government Attitude - The government has clearly defined its stance on the real estate market, emphasizing that housing is for living, not speculation, aiming to prevent both sharp price increases and decreases [1][3]. - In the first half of 2025, 85% of 300 cities implemented policies to stabilize the housing market, including easing purchase restrictions and lowering down payment ratios [3][4]. - The government's approach is focused on stability, indicating that the likelihood of a drastic drop in housing prices in the next few years is low [3][6]. Developer Attitude - Developers are experiencing a gradual recovery, with a reported 5.2% year-on-year increase in national commercial housing sales area from January to May 2025, marking the first positive growth since 2022 [4][6]. - The average debt-to-asset ratio of the top 100 real estate companies decreased from 78% in 2023 to 72% in 2025, indicating improved financial health [4][7]. - Developers are shifting their strategies to prioritize profit and cash flow over aggressive sales, suggesting they are unlikely to engage in significant price cuts [6][8]. Homebuyer Attitude - The homebuyer sentiment index rose to 65.3 in the first half of 2025, an increase of 7.2 percentage points from the same period in 2024, indicating a growing willingness to purchase homes [6][8]. - The debt-to-income ratio for households decreased to 62.3% in the first quarter of 2025, down 3.5 percentage points from the end of 2023, reflecting reduced financial pressure and improving purchasing power [7][8]. - Homebuyers are increasingly focusing on the intrinsic value of housing for living rather than as an investment, which is expected to lead to a healthier pricing mechanism in the market [8][12]. Market Outlook - The housing market is anticipated to experience regional differentiation, with first-tier and strong second-tier cities likely to stabilize and recover, while third and fourth-tier cities may continue to face downward pressure [8][12]. - Price fluctuations are expected to be moderate, with annual changes likely to remain within 5% due to the government's stabilizing policies [8][12]. - Overall, the market is becoming more rational, with a shift away from speculative buying towards a focus on housing as a necessity [8][12].