美联储10月降息预期升温，就业是决定降幅的关键

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's expectation for an interest rate cut in October has increased, primarily due to a weakening labor market [1][5]. Economic Activity - The latest Beige Book indicates that overall economic activity in the U.S. has not changed significantly since the last report, with 3 regions reporting slight to moderate growth, 5 regions reporting no change, and 4 regions reporting slight slowdowns [3]. - Analysts estimate a 30% probability of a recession in the next 12 months, but do not foresee a significant downturn [3]. Inflation and Costs - Tariffs imposed by the Trump administration are contributing to rising overall inflation, with businesses struggling to balance absorbing costs versus passing them on to customers [3]. - Prices have generally increased, although some regions have seen declines in prices for materials like steel and lumber due to weak demand [3]. Labor Market - The labor market remains stable overall, but many employers are reducing staff through layoffs or natural attrition due to weak demand and economic uncertainty [4]. - Some sectors still face hiring challenges despite a general ease in recruitment for companies with ongoing hiring needs [4]. Federal Reserve Policy Signals - Analysts suggest that the weak labor market may be a key factor for future rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [5]. - Recent statements from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell indicate a potential end to the balance sheet reduction, signaling a shift from tightening to easing monetary policy [6][7]. Divergence in Rate Cut Opinions - There is internal disagreement within the Federal Reserve regarding the path of rate cuts, with some officials advocating for a 50 basis point cut while others prefer a more cautious 25 basis point reduction [7][8]. - The recent increase in borrowing through the Fed's standing repo facility indicates tightening liquidity conditions, which may influence future policy decisions [6]. Economic Risks - The escalation of trade tensions is seen as a significant downside risk to the U.S. economy, prompting calls for a more aggressive monetary policy response [9]. - Concerns about inflation persist, but some officials believe that the current labor market conditions will not hinder the Fed's ability to maintain a 2% inflation target [8][9].