“黄金旗手”达里欧“加大火力”：黄金是唯一“不靠他人”的“永恒、普世”货币

Core Viewpoint - Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, reinforces his bullish stance on gold, viewing it as a "timeless and universal" form of currency that does not rely on counterparty credit, highlighting its strategic value in the current financial environment [1] Group 1: Gold as a Core Asset - Dalio suggests that gold is beginning to replace a portion of U.S. Treasuries in investment portfolios as a risk-free asset due to rising gold prices [1] - He recommends that investors allocate up to 15% of their portfolios to gold, emphasizing its effectiveness as a diversification tool during downturns in traditional investments [1][13] - Dalio's analysis indicates that gold's role in portfolios is becoming increasingly significant, especially among central banks and large institutional investors [7] Group 2: Understanding Gold's Value - Dalio argues that gold should be viewed as a fundamental form of currency rather than merely a metal, contrasting it with fiat currencies, which he sees as essentially debt [4] - He explains that throughout history, countries have experienced cycles of "debt-gold-currency," where gold's value becomes prominent when debt cannot be repaid [5] - Gold functions similarly to cash, allowing for direct settlement of transactions and debt repayment without creating new debt [6] Group 3: Gold vs. Other Assets - Dalio asserts that gold is becoming the second-largest currency, effectively replacing U.S. Treasuries in many investment portfolios [7] - He highlights that gold is less risky than sovereign debt, which can be subject to default or devaluation through inflation [8][9] - Compared to other precious metals like silver and platinum, gold holds a unique position due to its historical and cultural acceptance among global investors and central banks [10] Group 4: Tactical Allocation Strategy - Dalio emphasizes the importance of strategic asset allocation over tactical bets, suggesting that investors should hold approximately 15% in gold to optimize the risk-return profile of their portfolios [13] - He notes that while gold may have a lower expected long-term return, it performs exceptionally well during critical times [13] - The rise of gold ETFs has improved market liquidity, but the overall market size remains smaller than physical gold investments, which are not the primary driver of the current gold price increase [14]