一文读懂美联储“内部格局”：年底前降息幅度？关键看鲍威尔和沃勒

Core Viewpoint - There is a divergence within the Federal Reserve regarding future interest rate cuts, with the final decision heavily influenced by Chairman Powell and Governor Waller [1] Group 1: Powell's Position - Powell has reiterated a dovish stance, indicating a desire to cut rates in October and December, but emphasizes that decisions will depend on economic data [2] - He acknowledges strong GDP and spending data but remains cautious about labor market risks, suggesting that a decline in job vacancies could lead to higher unemployment [2] Group 2: Waller's Position - Waller, a dovish member of the FOMC, has shown signs of a subtle shift in his stance, expressing a desire to cut rates but also acknowledging the need to monitor strong GDP data against a weak labor market [3] - He recognizes that inflation, excluding tariffs, is around 2.5%, which may influence future rate decisions [3] Group 3: Divergence within the FOMC - The FOMC currently exhibits a clear divide, with the Board leaning dovish while regional Fed presidents tend to be more hawkish [4][5] - This division increases the risk of dissenting votes during potential rate cuts in October and December [7] Group 4: Market Predictions - Bank of America predicts a 25 basis point cut in October, followed by a pause in December, contingent on stable employment data and persistent inflation [8] - Upcoming economic reports on inflation and employment will be crucial in determining whether the Fed will proceed with rate cuts or adopt a more cautious approach [10]