政策托举之下，创业者为什么还是拿不到钱？

Core Insights - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes venture capital as a core tool for breakthroughs in hard technology, with government guidance funds exceeding 6 trillion yuan, focusing on critical areas like integrated circuits and quantum computing [1] - Policy direction provides a clear path for venture capital while reducing investment risks through fiscal subsidies and tax incentives, alongside deepened capital market reforms that offer diversified exit channels for early-stage projects [1] - The current investment landscape shows a presence of various funds, but a lack of willingness to invest in uncertain projects, leading to a preference for projects with clearer short-term returns [2][3] Investment Environment - Public sector funding aims to support long-term innovation but is constrained by the need for compliance and accountability, resulting in a preference for projects that yield immediate, reportable results [2] - The shift in funding dynamics has led to a focus on projects with high certainty and clear policy backing, sidelining longer-term, high-risk innovations [2][3] Risk and Return Dynamics - The structure of equity investment has shifted towards debt-like terms, creating a scenario where venture capital resembles fixed returns, which discourages entrepreneurs from engaging with such funding [3] - This transformation leads to a homogenization of funded projects, favoring those with clear metrics and demonstrable outcomes, while innovative, exploratory projects are increasingly marginalized [3][5] Market Trends - The changing exit environment, characterized by instability in secondary market windows and IPO rhythms, places additional pressure on long-term projects, making them less attractive to investors [5] - In the AI era, projects that demonstrate immediate cash flow and efficiency improvements are favored, while foundational innovations requiring longer development times are often dismissed as overly idealistic [5][6] Conclusion - The current investment climate reflects a preference for certainty and short-term results, which may undermine the exploration of innovative ideas and technologies, raising questions about the future of venture capital's role in fostering true innovation [6]