潘石屹再次预判我国楼市！若无意外，未来3年，楼市或迎来3大走向

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in 2026 is expected to continue its decline, with significant signals indicating a downturn in prices and demand [1][2]. Group 1: Market Signals - Signal 1: Population decline is leading to reduced demand for housing, as fewer people require homes [1]. - Signal 2: An oversupply of properties is evident, with a significant increase in listings and unsold units, indicating a supply-demand imbalance [1][2]. - Signal 3: Financial constraints are tightening, as lower interest rates do not equate to increased purchasing power for potential buyers [1][2]. - Signal 4: Buyer sentiment has shifted from fear of missing out to fear of overpaying, creating a cycle of hesitation and further price declines [1][2]. Group 2: Market Trends - The second-hand housing market is experiencing a "stampede," with prices dropping significantly as sellers compete to attract buyers [2]. - There is a rising trend of mortgage defaults, particularly among those who purchased homes at high interest rates during previous market peaks [2]. - Government measures to stimulate the market, such as lowering down payments and interest rates, are ineffective due to the lack of financial capacity among average consumers [2]. Group 3: Future Projections - Industry insiders suggest that stopping the price decline would be a victory, and a "V-shaped recovery" is unrealistic; a prolonged stagnation is more likely [2]. - The potential for significant price drops is acknowledged, with predictions of a gradual decline that could lead to substantial losses for homeowners [2]. - The overall sentiment is that real estate should be viewed as a necessity rather than an investment vehicle, emphasizing the importance of financial prudence [3].