从95%到0%：禁令加速与国产替代如何把英伟达在华份额“清零”

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia's effective market share in China's high-end AI accelerator market has rapidly declined from 95% to nearly zero due to a combination of U.S. export restrictions and Chinese regulatory measures [2][12]. Group 1: U.S. Export Restrictions - The U.S. has implemented multiple rounds of export restrictions on advanced AI chips to China, starting with the inclusion of A100/H100 GPUs in the control list in October 2022, followed by the addition of A800/H800 in October 2023 [4][12]. - Nvidia has attempted to comply by introducing lower-spec models like H20 to continue supplying the Chinese market [4][12]. Group 2: Chinese Regulatory Measures - Chinese regulators have discouraged companies from purchasing Nvidia's H20 and similar chips, aiming to reduce dependence on U.S. technology and promote domestic alternatives [7][12]. - Huawei's Ascend 910 series is rapidly increasing production, with significant output adjustments planned for 2025-2026, positioning it as a scalable alternative in the AI training and inference market [7][12]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The interplay of U.S. restrictions and China's push for localization has created a "policy scissors gap," severely limiting Nvidia's ability to conduct normal sales and deliveries in China [7][12]. - Nvidia's revenue from China has been significantly impacted over the past two years, affecting its valuation and growth trajectory [8][12]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The future landscape remains uncertain, with potential for regulatory adjustments from either the U.S. or China that could allow Nvidia to resume limited compliant sales [12]. - The ongoing geopolitical tensions are likely to lead to a decrease in global interoperability, making cross-border collaboration and best practice exchanges more challenging [12].