房产百万，存款百万，十年后谁更胜？

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese real estate market has entered a downward trend since the second half of 2021, affecting cities from lower-tier to major cities like Beijing and Shanghai, with significant price adjustments observed [1][9]. Real Estate Market Trends - The real estate market in China has seen a notable decline, with prices in first-tier cities like Shanghai dropping from over 100,000 yuan per square meter to around 70,000 yuan [1]. - Lower-tier cities are facing severe challenges due to population outflow and economic structure issues, leading to potential oversupply and value depreciation in the next decade [9]. Bank Deposit Rates - Bank deposit rates have been on a continuous decline since 2021, with three-year deposit rates dropping from over 4% to below 3% in 2023, reaching historical lows [3]. - The decreasing deposit rates raise concerns about the relative value of real estate versus bank deposits over a ten-year horizon [5]. Investment Considerations - Investing 1 million yuan in first-tier cities may only cover a down payment, leading to long-term loan burdens and risks of significant asset depreciation due to potential market corrections [8]. - In contrast, holding 1 million yuan in bank deposits offers more security, as the principal and interest are less likely to suffer losses compared to high-priced real estate [11]. Liquidity Comparison - The liquidity of bank deposits is significantly higher than that of real estate, as evidenced by the surge in second-hand housing listings in major cities, indicating investor caution and a desire to liquidate assets [11]. - The ability to quickly convert real estate into cash is limited, especially in a declining market, making bank deposits a more favorable option for liquidity [11].