Black Coffee: Burning Down the House

Taxation and Government Revenue - The IRS announced higher federal tax brackets for 2026, with the top rate of 37% for individuals earning above $640,600 and married couples earning above $768,700. The standard deduction will increase to $16,100 for singles and $32,200 for married couples [3] - US tax revenue has increased more than six-fold since 1980, while the national debt has risen 38 times during the same period, indicating a significant disparity in revenue management [24] Insurance and Natural Disasters - A Wells Fargo Securities study reported that insured losses from the Southern California wildfires this year are estimated at $30 billion, with 85% of losses expected from homeowners' insurance [7] - The issuance of building permits in affected areas is hindered by bureaucratic red tape, complicating recovery efforts for homeowners [7] Real Estate Market Trends - Building permits have been declining since late 2021, which is a historically reliable recession signal, coinciding with increased Google searches for mortgage assistance surpassing levels seen during the 2008 housing crisis [10] - The national office vacancy rate reached 21% by the end of June, with major cities like San Francisco and Denver experiencing rates of 28% and 37% respectively [17] Consumer Financial Health - Late payments among apartment renters have been rising since April 2024, indicating financial strain among renters [13] - A new financial technology firm, Yendo, allows individuals with poor credit to access equity in their depreciating used cars at a high interest rate, highlighting the challenges faced by consumers with low credit scores [21] Economic Indicators and Market Behavior - Despite the USD declining over 10% and negative economic data, stock markets continue to rise, suggesting a disconnect between market performance and economic health [27] - There is a noted correlation of 92% between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100 since 2019, indicating Bitcoin's speculative nature rather than its status as a safe haven asset [30]