美联储闭眼降息，经济数据打架，专家泼冷水：通胀失控才是真要命

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations are causing significant market reactions, with investors anticipating a reduction to 3.75%-4.00% in October and another cut in December, despite conflicting economic data [1][3] - The U.S. economy is showing signs of division, with GDP growth nearing 4% while employment data indicates job losses, particularly in retail and manufacturing sectors [3][5] - The government shutdown has delayed key economic reports, including the non-farm payroll and consumer price index (CPI), creating uncertainty for policymakers ahead of the October 28 meeting [3][5] Group 2 - There are differing opinions among Federal Reserve officials regarding the need for rate cuts, with some expressing concern over job market stability while others focus on inflation risks [5][10] - The impact of tariffs and immigration policies is evident, as companies are struggling with rising costs and labor shortages, leading to potential profit margin compression [7][8] - Economists note that while companies are currently managing costs through efficiency improvements, this may not be sustainable, and price increases could be necessary in the future, potentially exacerbating inflation [8][10]