Group 1 - The recent shift in monetary policy by the Federal Reserve, indicated by Powell's dovish signals, suggests an end to the balance sheet reduction and a high probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in October [1][3] - The Federal Reserve's balance sheet has decreased from a peak of $9 trillion during the pandemic to approximately $6.6 trillion, reflecting significant quantitative tightening [3][5] - Global banks have raised their expectations for the Fed to cut rates 3-5 times next year, indicating a potential new cycle of rate cuts for the dollar [3][5] Group 2 - Powell's shift from hawkish to dovish is influenced by the political environment, as Trump is currently preoccupied with international issues, allowing the Fed to maintain its independence [5][6] - Economic indicators show a cooling inflation rate, with CPI growth decreasing from 3.4% in December 2024 to 2.8% in September 2025, and a declining job market, providing a conducive environment for rate cuts [5][6] - The anticipated rate cuts by the Fed are expected to lead to a 10% depreciation of the dollar by the end of next year, which would result in a relative appreciation of global assets [8] Group 3 - The Fed's policy shift is not just a domestic issue but will have global repercussions, particularly benefiting emerging markets, including China, as capital flows are expected to increase [8][9] - The end of the Fed's balance sheet reduction will free up monetary policy space for China, allowing for more flexible liquidity measures to support economic growth [8][9] - Overall, the transition from quantitative tightening to easing by the Fed marks a significant turning point in the dollar cycle and will reshape global capital flows and monetary policy strategies [8][9]
中美利差倒挂终结！美联储降息，中国货币政策终于松绑
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-10-18 10:37