战略配置15%！达利欧：黄金是唯一“不靠他人”的“永恒、普世”货币

Core Viewpoint - Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, has reinforced his bullish stance on gold, viewing it as a "timeless and universal" form of currency that is increasingly valuable in the current financial environment [3][10]. Group 1: Gold as a Core Asset - Dalio suggests that gold is replacing a portion of U.S. Treasury bonds in investment portfolios, particularly among central banks and large institutional investors [9]. - He advocates for a strategic allocation of up to 15% of investment portfolios to gold, emphasizing its role as an excellent diversification tool during market downturns [16][17]. - Dalio argues that gold's value does not depend on any counterparty's creditworthiness, making it a unique asset compared to traditional debt instruments [10]. Group 2: Historical Context and Value of Gold - Dalio highlights the historical cycles of "debt-gold-currency," where gold's value becomes prominent when debt cannot be repaid and fiat currencies are printed excessively [6]. - He notes that approximately 80% of global currencies have disappeared since 1750, with the remaining 20% experiencing significant devaluation, underscoring the risks associated with debt assets like U.S. Treasuries [9]. Group 3: Comparison with Other Assets - Dalio explains that while other precious metals like silver and platinum have inflation-hedging properties, they lack the historical and cultural acceptance that gold enjoys [12]. - He acknowledges that inflation-protected securities (TIPS) are undervalued but are still fundamentally government debt, making them vulnerable during debt crises [13][14]. - Although stocks, particularly in high-growth sectors like AI, offer high return potential, they also carry significant bubble risks, necessitating prudent diversification [15]. Group 4: Strategic Recommendations - Dalio recommends a strategic asset allocation approach rather than tactical bets, suggesting that investors should hold around 15% in gold for optimal risk-return balance [16][17]. - He proposes leveraging strategies or overlaying investments to maintain gold positions without sacrificing expected returns [18]. - The rise of gold ETFs has improved market liquidity, but their scale is still smaller than physical gold investments, which are not the primary driver of the current gold price increase [19].