特朗普投下深水炸弹，美元霸权崩塌，人民币最受益，重返6时代？

Core Viewpoint - The recent tariff increases by Trump on various goods, including automobiles and chips, have led to significant market reactions, including a drop in the dollar index and a decline in the Dow Jones [1][9]. Economic Impact - The U.S. manufacturing PMI has fallen below the growth line for three consecutive months, dropping to 47.1 in Q3, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector [5]. - The financial collapse of Delta Technology has triggered failures in several Midwestern banks, leading to localized bank runs [5]. Currency Dynamics - The dollar is experiencing a trust crisis, with international investors withdrawing record amounts of capital from the U.S., causing the dollar index to decline from 108 to 98.5 [9]. - The People's Bank of China has strategically set the RMB midpoint at 7.0949, higher than the offshore market, signaling a potential for RMB appreciation [11]. RMB Internationalization - The RMB's attractiveness is increasing, with foreign holdings of Chinese government bonds rising by 12% quarter-on-quarter in Q3 2025 [13]. - The cross-border payment system CIPS has expanded to cover 180 countries, with a 40% year-on-year increase in transaction volume, indicating a move towards a de-dollarized backup plan [13][15]. Geopolitical Context - The decoupling of U.S. and Chinese technology sectors has prompted China to accelerate domestic replacements, particularly in semiconductors, following restrictions on companies like Nvidia [17]. - The RMB is not aiming to replace the dollar but to create a more diversified and stable international monetary system, which could enhance its global stability [18][22]. Future Outlook - For the RMB to stabilize below 6.8, three conditions must be met: stable trade surpluses, gradual capital account opening, and a stable geopolitical environment [20]. - The potential for the RMB to approach 6.8 is contingent on continued Fed rate cuts and the impact of Trump's policies on the dollar [20].