2025-2710经济展望全解析：十大核心问题，看清未来五年全球经济走向

Core Insights - The report outlines a complex economic landscape characterized by slow growth, persistent inflation, and significant policy dilemmas, with key risks including geopolitical tensions and the impact of AI on markets [2][3] Global Economic Outlook - The global economy is entering a phase of "mild stagflation" with weak growth projected at +2.7% in 2025 and +2.5% in 2026, while inflation remains high at 3.9% and 3.5% respectively [2] - Global trade growth is expected to slow significantly from +2% in 2025 to +0.6% in 2026 [2] Regional Analysis - In the US and UK, inflation is expected to remain stubbornly high, with US inflation projected to exceed targets through 2027 [2] - The Eurozone is nearing the ECB's 2% inflation target, with expectations of stability [2] Consumer Behavior - High interest rates and prices are suppressing consumer confidence, leading to a forecast of weak consumption recovery [2] Interest Rate Projections - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower rates by only 75 basis points by mid-2026, with terminal rates between 3.25% and 3.50% [2] - The ECB has ended its rate hike cycle, while the Bank of England is anticipated to ease further, reducing rates to 3.0% by 2027 [2] Debt and Fiscal Challenges - Global corporate bankruptcies are projected to increase by 6% in 2025 and 4% in 2026, peaking around 2027 [4] - The report highlights a significant rise in long-term yields due to high fiscal deficits and substantial debt issuance [4] Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the US capital market continues to attract strong foreign investment despite pressures for de-dollarization [4] - The valuation of US equities remains high with a P/E ratio of 23x, but strong long-term earnings growth supports a sustainable PEG ratio of 1.4x [4] Emerging Markets - Emerging markets, excluding China, are in an expansion phase with growth exceeding expectations, although certain countries like Argentina and Brazil are flagged for potential risks [4] - China's growth is projected at +4.8% in 2025, slowing to +4.2% in 2026, facing challenges from weak domestic demand and real estate downturns [4]