布米普特拉北京投资基金管理有限公司：AI技术或致数百万岗位流失

Core Insights - Jefferies' chief market strategist David Zervos warns that the Federal Reserve may underestimate the potential impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on the job market [1][3] - The current economic landscape shows a complex scenario of strong growth alongside employment concerns, presenting unprecedented challenges for the Federal Reserve's policy-making [3] Economic Growth and Employment - Zervos indicates that the U.S. economy may be experiencing significant growth, yet job growth is not meeting expectations, creating a paradox that complicates monetary policy [3] - He highlights that if economic growth reaches 3.5% to 4% while unemployment continues to rise, it would severely test the current monetary policy framework [3] Federal Reserve's Focus - Zervos emphasizes that the Federal Reserve should pay more attention to labor market changes rather than overly focusing on inflation issues [3] - He argues that the Fed needs to balance its dual mandate of achieving full employment while maintaining price stability, a task made increasingly difficult by rapid advancements in AI technology [3] AI's Impact on Employment - Experts in the AI field have indicated that the U.S. job market may face a loss of 3 to 5 million jobs within the next three to four years, potentially occurring faster than anticipated [6] - Since the emergence of ChatGPT in 2023, warnings about AI leading to mass unemployment have intensified, with recent technological developments reinforcing these concerns [6] AI Performance and Economic Indicators - OpenAI's recent test results show that its latest model, GPT-5, and competitor Anthropic's Claude Opus are nearing the work quality of industry experts, with GPT-5's performance nearly tripling compared to the previous model released fifteen months ago [8] - The rapid advancement of AI technology is redefining the nature of work and poses new challenges to traditional economic indicators and policy tools [8]