稀土战火烧到世贸：七天博弈如何改写全球产业链命运？

Core Viewpoint - The recent changes in China's rare earth export regulations have triggered a significant geopolitical response, highlighting the strategic importance of rare earth elements in global supply chains and the escalating tensions between China and Western nations [1][3][11]. Group 1: China's New Export Regulations - China's Ministry of Commerce and Customs has implemented comprehensive export controls on rare earth elements, affecting the entire supply chain from mining to manufacturing, requiring detailed reporting and approval for exports [3][5]. - The new regulations include a stringent "0.1% Chinese content" rule, meaning any foreign product containing even trace amounts of Chinese rare earths will require extensive approval for export [3][5]. - This move is seen as a strategic maneuver by China to leverage its market position and resource advantages in the global value chain [3][11]. Group 2: Western Response - In response to China's actions, Western allies, particularly the U.S. and EU, have mobilized quickly, with the EU Trade Commissioner indicating that China's controls have led to production halts in some EU companies [5][9]. - The Netherlands has taken aggressive steps by nationalizing ASML, a key player in the semiconductor supply chain, to prevent Chinese influence [5][9]. - The U.S. has also ramped up its search for rare earth resources, committing $7 billion to global mining efforts, but faces challenges in execution due to geopolitical instability in regions like Pakistan [9][11]. Group 3: WTO's Role and Double Standards - The World Trade Organization (WTO) has shown a bias in its responses, suggesting that China should rebalance its economy while ignoring similar actions taken by the U.S. against Chinese companies [7][8]. - The WTO's stance reflects a broader Western hypocrisy regarding export controls, as similar measures are often justified under national security by the U.S. [7][8]. Group 4: Implications for Global Supply Chains - China's dominance in the rare earth permanent magnet market, holding over 70% of the global share, poses a significant threat to Western industries that rely on these materials [9][11]. - The inability of Western nations to establish alternative supply chains or sources for rare earths highlights their vulnerability in the face of China's strategic moves [9][11]. - The ongoing conflict over rare earth resources signifies a deeper clash over industrial dominance in the 21st century, with China positioned to reshape the underlying logic of global supply chains [11].