美联储十月降息重大转折！10月19日，今日凌晨的三大消息冲击股市！

Group 1: Immigration and Employment Policy - The ongoing dispute over H-1B visa application fees has escalated, with costs rising from thousands of dollars to $100,000, significantly impacting the U.S. tech industry that relies on foreign talent [1] - Large companies may absorb the increased costs, but startups and small businesses are likely to struggle, potentially weakening their competitiveness in R&D and product innovation [1] - The rising costs may push some tech talent to other countries, threatening the U.S.'s attractiveness in the global high-skilled talent market [1] Group 2: Resource Security - The U.S. Department of Defense has halted a $500 million cobalt procurement bid, which was intended to build strategic reserves for the renewable energy and military sectors [2] - The global cobalt supply is heavily concentrated in the Democratic Republic of Congo, and previous export policy tightening has caused prices to double, complicating U.S. procurement efforts [2] - The lack of domestic refining and processing capabilities indicates that the U.S. will need more international cooperation and long-term investment to address raw material security weaknesses [2] Group 3: Monetary Policy - Ahead of the October Federal Reserve meeting, there is a surprising shift in internal positions, with most officials leaning towards a 25 basis point rate cut, and some suggesting a possibility of 50 basis points [4] - Current signs of economic slowdown and labor market risks make a rate cut almost certain, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut nearing 100% [4] - The potential for a shift in liquidity management, including halting balance sheet reduction, may provide a supportive signal for both the bond and stock markets [4] Group 4: Market Implications - The intersection of immigration policy barriers, resource reserve bottlenecks, and monetary easing creates a complex environment for the U.S. market [4] - While short-term liquidity signals may dominate market behavior, long-term attention should be given to changes in industry competitiveness and supply chain security [4] - If the anticipated rate cut occurs, combined with improved liquidity by year-end, it could enhance global risk appetite, although underlying issues in talent and resource availability may continue to drive market volatility [4]