猪价，继续下跌还是触底反弹？

Core Viewpoint - The pig market is experiencing significant price declines, with both spot and futures prices hitting new lows due to oversupply and insufficient capacity reduction in the industry [1][2][4]. Price Trends - As of the first week of October, the average price of live pigs in China was 12.90 yuan/kg, down 2.8% week-on-week and 29.5% year-on-year [1]. - Futures prices for near-month contracts have approached 11,000 yuan/ton, with a decline of over 9% since October [1][2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of live pigs has exceeded market expectations, leading to a fundamental shift from profitability to losses in the industry since September [2][3]. - Analysts indicate that the current market conditions suggest a prolonged period of oversupply, with limited potential for price recovery even with seasonal demand increases [1][3]. Capacity Adjustment - The industry is facing a dual loss situation for both piglets and fattening pigs, with an increase in the sentiment to cull sows, but the pace of capacity reduction remains slower than expected [3][4]. - Some leading companies have responded to calls for capacity adjustment, but many smaller firms are either making minor adjustments or maintaining a wait-and-see approach [4]. Future Outlook - If the reduction in sow capacity begins to materialize in October, it could lead to a decrease in fattening pig capacity by August 2026, but the market may still face oversupply until then [4]. - The price of live pigs is expected to fluctuate, with a potential high point unlikely to exceed 14 yuan/kg and a low point unlikely to drop below 10 yuan/kg without panic selling [4][5]. Market Sentiment and Policy Impact - The government has been actively involved in regulating the industry, with multiple meetings held to discuss capacity control, indicating a commitment to stabilizing prices [3][4]. - Analysts suggest that while the current price levels are under pressure, government policies aimed at guiding reasonable price recovery may shorten the duration of the current pressure period [5].