“穷人的黄金”暴涨，市场现货短缺

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market has seen a strong performance this year, with gold prices reaching historical highs and silver, often referred to as "poor man's gold," also experiencing significant price increases [1][18]. Group 1: Silver Price Surge - On October 9, the spot silver price surpassed $50 per ounce for the first time, with a year-to-date increase of over 70%, outperforming gold [2]. - The rising silver prices have sparked interest in silver bar investments, leading to reports of delivery delays of up to one month on certain platforms [3][24]. Group 2: Market Demand and Supply - A visit to the Shenzhen Shui Bei market revealed high demand for silver, with some stores requiring appointments due to limited stock [5][12]. - The market is experiencing a shortage of silver bars, with many stores having little to no inventory available for immediate purchase [15][16]. - According to the World Silver Association, global silver demand has consistently exceeded supply from 2021 to 2024, with a projected shortfall of 3,659 tons by 2025 [17]. Group 3: Investment Dynamics - The current market dynamics indicate that while silver bars are in high demand, the availability of immediate stock is limited, leading to a preference for face-to-face transactions to mitigate risks associated with pre-orders [16][24]. - The price of silver bars varies, with 1,000-gram bars priced between 12.82 and 13.82 yuan per gram, reflecting a premium over the real-time silver price due to membership and transaction fees associated with purchasing from trading platforms [8][12]. Group 4: Factors Driving Precious Metal Prices - The surge in precious metal prices is attributed to several factors, including increased demand for safe-haven assets due to global economic and geopolitical uncertainties, changes in the dollar and interest rate environment, and a trend of central banks accumulating gold [29][30]. - The recent price increases in silver have been influenced by a significant rise in physical delivery demand, limited increases in COMEX silver warehouse stocks, and a tightening of rental rates for silver in London [31]. Group 5: Long-term Outlook - Experts suggest that silver possesses long-term growth potential, particularly in the context of its role in the green economy, while also cautioning that a decline in global inflation or a strengthening dollar could reduce demand for precious metals [32].