2025年这场白银逼空大戏：印度大V，中国假期与伦敦挤兑

Core Insights - A perfect storm has hit the global silver market, driven by a surge in retail demand in India, supply disruptions due to holidays in China, and depleted London gold inventories, leading to the most severe silver market crisis since the Hunt brothers' manipulation in 1980 [1] - Silver prices reached a historical high of $54 per ounce before plummeting by 6.7%, highlighting extreme market pressures [1] - The crisis is attributed to a long-standing structural imbalance in the silver market, which has now erupted [1] Group 1: Indian Retail Demand - Ahead of the Diwali festival, a prominent Indian social media influencer encouraged buying silver, leading to unprecedented demand [2] - Silver premiums surged to over $5 per ounce, significantly higher than the usual few cents [2] - Major fund companies were forced to suspend new subscriptions for silver funds due to the overwhelming demand [2] Group 2: London Market Liquidity Crisis - The surge in demand from India coincided with supply disruptions from China, causing a liquidity crisis in the London market [3] - London’s freely available inventory dropped to less than 150 million ounces, while daily trading volume was around 250 million ounces [3] - Borrowing rates for silver skyrocketed to an annualized 200%, and major banks withdrew from quoting prices, leading to a widening bid-ask spread [3] Group 3: Long-term Structural Imbalance - The crisis is not a sudden event but a culmination of years of structural imbalance, with demand consistently outpacing supply by 678 million ounces over the past five years [4] - The photovoltaic industry has significantly contributed to this demand, with its growth exceeding 100% during this period [4] - Concerns over potential tariffs under the Trump administration prompted traders to move over 200 million ounces of silver into New York warehouses [4] Group 4: Market Predictions and Reactions - Analysts have warned about the impending liquidity crisis in the London market for over a year, with predictions of a peak in the market [6] - Despite early predictions of a price peak, silver prices continued to rise until a significant drop occurred last Friday [6] - As silver begins to flow back into the market from various sources, further price pressures may emerge due to complex logistics and potential tariff implications [6]