一波三折！高市早苗接近成为“日本第一位女首相”，但“早苗交易”前途未卜

Core Points - Japan is on the verge of a historic moment with the formation of a coalition government between the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the Japan Innovation Party, paving the way for the country's first female Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi [1] - The coalition agreement is expected to be signed soon, with Takaichi likely to receive support from the Innovation Party in the upcoming parliamentary vote, although the party will not send ministers to her cabinet [1][2] - The economic policy outlook for the new government is uncertain, as the coalition may face challenges in passing legislation due to a fragmented political landscape [2][3] Economic Policy Challenges - The weakening of political consensus and the LDP's minority government status may hinder legislative efforts to address Japan's long-standing labor shortages, rapid aging population, and severe supply constraints [2] - Economic strategies that are expansionary in nature may have a higher chance of gaining support from opposition parties, but measures to address supply constraints may struggle to progress under the current political situation [3] Political Stability and Economic Recovery - Political instability increases uncertainty for businesses regarding the impact of U.S. tariffs, potentially hampering Japan's already fragile economic recovery [4] - Takaichi's weak position within the party and the influence of senior lawmakers advocating for conservative policies may limit her ability to implement aggressive economic measures [5] Debt Market Pressures - The bond market may become a significant constraint on large-scale spending, as rising government bond yields reflect market expectations for increased bond issuance to fund spending plans [7] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has advised Japan to avoid cutting consumption tax rates or implementing broad subsidy measures, suggesting that any support should be targeted and temporary [8]