特朗普夸下海口，中国一定会答应？美国人不干了，上个“大饼”还没吃到，中美局势迎来新变数

Core Points - Trump emphasizes the importance of soybean issues in negotiations with China, claiming that he can secure soybean imports from China, but there is skepticism about his ability to deliver on these promises [1][5] - The U.S. government shutdown has delayed the distribution of $13 billion in agricultural aid, which is critical for farmers facing rising costs and unsold soybeans [1][3] - Farmers express frustration over the lack of concrete solutions and the need for stable trade channels rather than temporary subsidies [3][5] Group 1 - Trump's promises regarding soybean imports have not materialized, leading to a significant drop in U.S. soybean exports to China, with exports from January to August down over 50% compared to the previous year [3][5] - China's soybean import channels have diversified, with 85% of imports expected to come from Brazil by mid-2025, indicating a shift away from reliance on U.S. soybeans [3][5] - The U.S. agricultural policy is exposed as fragile due to reliance on subsidies, which are now at risk due to the government shutdown [5][8] Group 2 - The ongoing trade tensions have turned into a strategic endurance contest, with China showing patience while the U.S. faces urgent electoral pressures [7][8] - Farmers' trust in Trump's ability to resolve the soybean crisis is waning, as they have yet to see tangible results from his administration's promises [7][8] - The situation highlights the broader implications of U.S.-China trade relations, where agricultural issues are intertwined with political dynamics and electoral considerations [5][8]