再抛美债825亿，降至14年来新低，美债有暴雷的风险吗？

Core Viewpoint - China has been continuously reducing its holdings of US Treasury bonds, with the latest data showing a decrease of $11.3 billion in June, bringing the total to $835.4 billion, the lowest in 14 years. This decision is driven by multiple strategic considerations [1]. Group 1: Risk Mitigation - The reduction in US Treasury holdings is aimed at mitigating potential default risks, as the US national debt has ballooned to $32.659 trillion, significantly exceeding its 2022 GDP of $25.45 trillion. Countries, including China, are increasingly concerned about the possibility of a US debt crisis [3]. - The current high dollar index during the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike cycle provides an opportune moment for China to reduce its US debt exposure and lower future risks [3]. Group 2: Diversification of Foreign Exchange Reserves - China has historically held a high proportion of US dollar assets, which once reached 70%, while non-dollar assets like gold and euros accounted for only 30%. This imbalance exposes China to significant risks from dollar depreciation [5]. - By selling off some US Treasury bonds and increasing holdings in gold and euros, China aims to optimize its foreign exchange reserve structure and reduce reliance on a single currency [5]. Group 3: Short-term Stability of US Treasury Bonds - Despite China's ongoing reduction of US Treasury bonds, the likelihood of a short-term crisis in the US bond market remains low. China's holdings represent only a small fraction of the total US debt, and domestic entities like the Federal Reserve and financial institutions can absorb any potential sell-off [6]. - The US can manage maturing debt through "rolling over" its obligations, as long as its credit system remains intact and it can continue issuing new bonds to pay off old ones [7]. - The US, as the largest economy globally, possesses substantial economic strength and innovation capabilities, allowing it to repay debts through the sale of high-tech products. The majority of US debt is held domestically, minimizing the impact of foreign holders [9].