Ge Long Hui·2025-10-19 04:55Core Viewpoint - The company's performance in the first three quarters of 2025 met expectations, with revenue and net profit showing modest growth compared to the previous year [1][2]. Performance Review - For 1-3Q25, the company reported revenue of 74.32 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 8.71 billion yuan, up 6.8% year-on-year, aligning with expectations [1]. - In 3Q25, revenue reached 24.72 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.1%, while net profit was 2.95 billion yuan, up 4.5% year-on-year [1][2]. Development Trends - Revenue from the two wings of the business maintained high growth, while revenue from tower-related services showed a slowdown. For 1-3Q25, revenue growth rates for tower, indoor distribution, smart connection, and energy businesses were -0.7%, +11.3%, +16.8%, and +11.5%, respectively [1]. - In 3Q25, the quarterly growth rates for these segments were -1.2%, +9.8%, +13.2%, and +15.9% [1]. - The number of tower sites reached 2.137 million by the end of 3Q, an increase of 2.1% from the beginning of the year, with an average of 1.81 tenants per site, unchanged from the start of the year [1]. EBITDA and Profitability - EBITDA for the first three quarters grew by 2.5% year-on-year, while in 3Q25, it was 16.73 billion yuan, reflecting a slight increase of 0.4% year-on-year [2]. - The company announced a change in the depreciation period for indoor distribution assets, extending it from 7 years to 10 years, which is expected to reduce depreciation expenses by approximately 870 million yuan in 2025 [2]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains its profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026, with the current stock price corresponding to 3.7 and 3.5 times the EV/EBITDA for 2025 and 2026, respectively [2]. - The target price is set at 14.00 HKD, implying a potential upside of 20.1% from the current stock price, corresponding to 4.2 and 4.1 times the EV/EBITDA for 2025 and 2026 [2].