Ge Long Hui·2025-10-19 05:03Core Viewpoint - JD Group is expected to achieve a total revenue of 295.9 billion yuan in Q3 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 13.6%, driven by strong performance in both product and service revenues [1] Group 1: Financial Forecasts - Total revenue for JD Group in Q3 2025 is projected at 295.9 billion yuan, with product revenue at 224.8 billion yuan and service revenue at 71.1 billion yuan [1] - JD Retail revenue is expected to reach 247.9 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10% [2] - Non-GAAP net profit is anticipated to be 4.3 billion yuan, a significant decline of 68% year-on-year, with a Non-GAAP net profit margin decreasing by 3.6 percentage points to 1.4% [1] Group 2: JD Retail Performance - JD Retail's revenue is projected to grow by 10% year-on-year to 247.9 billion yuan, with core GMV also expected to increase by 10% [2] - The revenue from 1P electric products is expected to grow by 5% to 128.9 billion yuan, while 1P daily necessities are projected to grow by 17% to 95.8 billion yuan [2] - 3P platform and advertising service revenue is expected to grow by 28% to 26.7 billion yuan, supported by a robust recovery in consumer spending [2] Group 3: Logistics and New Business - JD Logistics revenue is expected to grow by 11% year-on-year to 49.3 billion yuan, benefiting from the rapid development of the express delivery market [3] - JD's food delivery business is projected to incur an operating loss of 12.5 billion yuan in Q3 2025, although losses are expected to narrow compared to Q2 2025 [3] - Investments in new businesses such as Jingxi and international operations are anticipated to increase losses compared to Q2 2025 [3] Group 4: Profitability and Investment Rating - Revenue forecasts for JD Group from 2025 to 2027 are adjusted to 1,325.3 billion yuan, 1,420 billion yuan, and 1,512.8 billion yuan respectively, with net profits of 22 billion yuan, 37.7 billion yuan, and 51.5 billion yuan [4] - The target market value for JD Group in 2026 is set at 565.2 billion yuan, with a target price of 177 yuan per share [4]