空置房够3亿人住，房价下跌空间还有有多大？潘石屹、孙宏斌透底

Core Insights - The article highlights the significant challenges facing China's real estate market, including high vacancy rates and a fundamental shift in supply-demand dynamics due to declining population growth and urbanization [1][3][6]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The urban housing vacancy rate in China has reached 17.6%, with over 65 million vacant homes, indicating a supply surplus [1]. - The average inventory turnover period for commercial housing is 16 months, significantly above the healthy range of 6-12 months, with some cities exceeding 24 months [3]. - Sales strategies have shifted from scarcity to incentivizing purchases, with developers offering lower down payments and additional perks to attract buyers [3]. Regional Price Variations - Housing price declines vary by city tier, with first-tier cities experiencing a slight decrease of 1.2%, while second-tier cities saw a 5.8% drop, and third and fourth-tier cities faced declines of up to 8.7% [3][4]. - In some resource-depleted and aging regions, price drops exceeded 15% [3]. Land Market Trends - National land transaction prices fell by 12.3% in the first half of 2025, with a land auction failure rate of 35.7%, indicating a downward trend in land prices that will likely affect housing prices [4]. - Developers are under financial pressure, with the average debt ratio for the top 100 real estate companies at 78.3% and a sales collection rate of only 67% [4]. Future Price Projections - Industry experts predict a potential further decline in housing prices, with estimates suggesting a 15-25% drop in many cities over the next 3-5 years [6][7]. - The market is expected to undergo a structural adjustment rather than a linear decline, with first-tier cities remaining relatively stable due to ongoing population inflows [6][7]. Population Trends - Major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen continue to see slight population growth, contrasting with over 70% of county-level areas experiencing population decline [7]. - The demand for housing is directly influenced by population movements, with core urban areas maintaining price stability compared to peripheral regions [7][9]. Housing Quality and Buyer Behavior - High-quality housing with better amenities is more resilient in price, while lower-quality properties are experiencing more significant declines [9]. - The demand for investment properties has decreased, with first-time and upgrade buyers making up 82% of transactions, the lowest investment ratio in a decade [9][10]. Market Adaptation Strategies - Buyers are encouraged to make more rational purchasing decisions, focusing on actual needs and financial capabilities rather than speculative trends [10][11]. - The market is shifting towards a more diversified asset allocation, with increased savings and investments in financial products as real estate's speculative appeal diminishes [13][14].