暴涨后还能买吗？达里欧对黄金的最新思考

Core Viewpoint - Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, expresses a bullish stance on gold, emphasizing its unique role as a form of currency rather than just a metal [1][2]. Group 1: Gold as a Unique Asset - Dalio argues that gold is fundamentally different from fiat currency, which is essentially debt, while gold serves as a settlement tool that can pay off debts without creating new ones [2][3]. - Gold is viewed as an excellent diversification tool in investment portfolios, particularly during times of market turmoil when other assets underperform [2][3]. - Dalio highlights that gold has historically performed well when other assets, such as stocks and bonds, are struggling, acting almost like an "insurance policy" in diversified portfolios [2][3]. Group 2: Comparison with Other Assets - Dalio explains why gold is preferred over other assets like silver, platinum, or inflation-linked bonds, noting that while these can hedge against inflation, they are more volatile and influenced by industrial demand [2][9]. - Unlike inflation-linked bonds, which are still debt instruments and subject to government credit risk, gold does not carry inherent credit or devaluation risks [9][10]. - High-growth stocks, particularly in the AI sector, are seen as risky due to their dependence on uncertain cash flows, making gold a more stable choice for diversification [2][11]. Group 3: Gold's Role in Modern Portfolios - Dalio observes that gold is increasingly replacing U.S. Treasuries as a "risk-free asset" in many investment portfolios, especially among central banks and large institutions [3][17]. - Historically, gold has proven to be a lower-risk asset compared to government-issued debt, as it does not rely on any credit promises [3][18]. - The long-term trend shows that approximately 80% of currencies have disappeared since 1750, while gold remains a universally accepted form of currency [3][18]. Group 4: Optimal Allocation and Market Dynamics - Dalio suggests that a strategic allocation of about 15% to gold is optimal for maximizing risk-adjusted returns in investment portfolios [4][16]. - The rise of gold ETFs has improved market liquidity and transparency, but their scale is still much smaller than physical gold investments or central bank holdings, thus not being the primary driver of gold price increases [4][16]. - If individual and institutional investors allocate a suitable proportion of their assets to gold, the limited supply will necessitate higher gold prices [4][16].