2025年10月开始，要做好“资产贬值”的准备？这四件事情建议别做

Core Viewpoint - Experts predict that domestic inflation is imminent by the second half of 2025 due to significant monetary expansion, yet the economy remains in a deflationary cycle with a CPI of -0.3% as of September 2025, indicating that money is becoming more valuable [1][3]. Monetary Policy and Economic Conditions - As of September 2025, the broad money supply (M2) reached 335.38 trillion yuan, which is double the GDP, yet inflation has not materialized due to insufficient consumer and investment confidence, leading to stagnant prices [1][3]. - The deflationary environment is exacerbated by a sluggish real economy and declining household incomes, resulting in decreased consumer demand and prompting businesses to lower prices to clear inventory [3]. Real Estate Market - The real estate market continues to experience a downward trend, with the average price of second-hand homes in 100 cities falling to 13,381 yuan per square meter, a year-on-year decrease of 7.38%, and prices have been declining for 41 consecutive months [8]. - The average decline in housing prices exceeds 30%, with certain areas around Beijing seeing drops of over 60%, suggesting that investing in real estate is not advisable at this time [8]. Stock Market Insights - The A-share market has seen a new wave of growth since the beginning of 2025, primarily driven by lower bank deposit rates prompting investors to shift funds into the stock market [5]. - Caution is advised for investors in the stock market, particularly against blindly chasing high prices and using leverage, as these strategies could lead to significant losses if the market turns [5]. Investment Products and Risks - The bank wealth management market reached a scale of 30.67 trillion yuan by June 2025, with annualized returns between 2.25% and 2.55%, which are higher than one-year fixed deposit rates [10]. - Despite the perceived safety of bank wealth management products, risks are increasing, particularly due to declining yields in the bond market, which could lead to potential losses even in lower-risk products [10]. Entrepreneurship Challenges - The current economic deflation poses significant challenges for new entrepreneurs, including shrinking consumer demand, oversaturation in traditional industries, rising operational costs, and competition from e-commerce [12]. - Given the economic context, it is recommended to avoid risky investments and focus on low-risk products like government bonds or large-denomination certificates of deposit to preserve capital until the deflationary cycle ends [12].