重回6时代，人民币最为受益！特朗普投下深水炸弹，美元霸权崩塌

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of Trump's tariff policy in April 2025 has significantly destabilized the dollar's dominance, leading to a decline in the dollar index and a surge in gold prices, while accelerating the transition to a multipolar currency system [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Impact of Tariff Policy - The "reciprocal tariff" policy announced by the Trump administration caused a 12% drop in major U.S. stock indices, equivalent to the total market capitalization of the UK stock market [3]. - The U.S. debt crisis worsened under the tariff policy, with $6.5 trillion in debt maturing in June 2025, nearly half of China's annual GDP [3]. - The foreign ownership of U.S. Treasury bonds has decreased from a peak of 34% to 24%, indicating a loss of confidence in dollar-denominated assets [3]. Group 2: Global Currency Dynamics - The share of the dollar in global foreign exchange reserves has fallen from 66% in 2015 to below 58% by the third quarter of 2024, reflecting a significant decline in dollar dominance [5]. - Central banks globally have increased gold purchases, with 2025 data showing a record high of 1580 tons, while the dollar's share in foreign reserves dropped to a 25-year low [5]. - The EU has expanded the euro settlement circle, increasing its trade with China in euros from 17% to 29% [7]. Group 3: Rise of the Renminbi - The cross-border payment system (CIPS) for the renminbi saw a 63% year-on-year increase in transaction volume in the first quarter of 2025, while the dollar's settlement share fell below 40% [7]. - The renminbi has become the fourth most active currency globally, maintaining a 4.52% share of total global payments as of April 2024 [9]. - China's financial market opening has led to a significant increase in foreign investment, with foreign holdings of domestic bonds and stocks reaching $1.0542 trillion by the end of 2020, a 4.7-fold increase since 2015 [10]. Group 4: Policy and Strategic Developments - The People's Bank of China has optimized policies for cross-border renminbi usage, gradually removing barriers to facilitate its internationalization [12]. - The Chinese central bank set the USD/CNY exchange rate at 7.0949 on October 17, 2025, reflecting a strategic intent to guide the renminbi's appreciation [15]. - Over 30 countries have shifted to using the renminbi for trade settlements, indicating a growing acceptance and influence of the renminbi in emerging economies [15].