美国区域性银行信贷危机再起，会重蹈硅谷银行覆辙吗？

Core Viewpoint - The recent significant stock price declines of Zions Bancorp and Western Alliance Bancorp highlight emerging credit risks in the U.S. banking sector, particularly related to commercial mortgage fraud, raising concerns about a potential credit crisis [2][5][6]. Group 1: Bank Performance and Financial Impact - Zions Bancorp reported a full provision for approximately $60 million in unpaid debts related to two commercial loans, which represents about 3.5% of its net revenue for 2024, estimated at $3.1 billion [3][4]. - Western Alliance Bancorp also indicated involvement in similar fraudulent loan activities and has initiated legal action against the same borrower [5]. Group 2: Risk Assessment and Market Reaction - The market reacted negatively, with Zions Bancorp and Western Alliance Bancorp's stock prices dropping by 13% and 11% respectively, marking one of the worst trading days for regional banks since the Silicon Valley Bank collapse in March 2023 [2][6]. - Analysts express that while the current situation may be an isolated incident, the potential for similar credit risks to spread remains a concern due to the reliance of regional banks on commercial mortgage loans and small business credit [2][6]. Group 3: Broader Implications for the Banking Sector - The incidents at Zions and Western Alliance reflect systemic issues in credit quality and risk management within regional banks, particularly regarding due diligence and oversight of non-depository financial institutions [5][7]. - The ongoing high-interest rate environment and cooling commercial real estate market have led to increased default rates on commercial mortgages, putting additional pressure on regional banks, which account for 80% of the U.S. commercial mortgage market [7][8].