【百利好热点追踪】大衰退要重现 4500只是起点

Group 1 - The article discusses the historical context of gold price surges, highlighting that gold has experienced three significant rallies, with the first two resulting in substantial losses for investors due to high-level entrapment [1][3] - The first major surge occurred from 1978 to 1980, where gold prices increased from $244 to $850, marking a 248% rise amid geopolitical tensions and domestic economic issues in the U.S. [3] - The second surge took place from 2008 to 2011, with gold rising from approximately $700 to $1905, a 171% increase, driven by the global financial crisis and the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing policies [3] Group 2 - Recent warnings from financial institutions indicate that nearly half of U.S. states are facing economic recession, with Moody's reporting that over 22 states are in economic contraction [6] - The economic downturn is exacerbated in Washington D.C. due to significant federal layoffs and budget cuts, with the recession spreading across the entire U.S. [6] - The ongoing global geopolitical instability and the trend of de-dollarization have led to increased demand for gold, as countries seek to build independent banking systems and accumulate gold reserves [6] Group 3 - Analysts suggest that gold has entered a new phase of significant price increases even before the U.S. economy officially enters a recession, with expectations of gold prices potentially exceeding $4500 in the next three months [7]