国金策略：调整有望放缓，主线变化仍会继续

Group 1 - The core reason for the recent market adjustment is the high ratio of US financial assets to GDP, weakening service sector, and emerging contradictions in technology development [1][2][11] - A-share market's rise since April has been closely linked to overseas market trends, and the current adjustment marks the beginning of a structural shift [1][2] - The downward pressure on the service sector and the slowdown in US financial asset expansion are confirmed mid-term trends, while global manufacturing recovery and rising physical consumption are also certain [1][5] Group 2 - Domestic financial data indicates a seasonal increase in new medium and long-term loans for enterprises, with a super-seasonal growth in new loans for residents, suggesting a gradual recovery in terminal demand [3][19] - The year-on-year growth rate of domestic PPI has further rebounded, with significant improvements in the upstream industry, indicating a stabilization of prices [3][19] - China's dependence on exports to the US has decreased, with overall export growth showing a notable recovery, suggesting a strengthening of manufacturing activities outside the US [3][23] Group 3 - The long-term outlook for gold is supported by expectations of interest rate cuts, geopolitical risks weakening the dollar, and persistent government deficits [4][30] - The rapid rise in gold prices since late August has been accompanied by increased net inflows into gold ETFs, indicating a shift in asset allocation preferences among investors [4][34] - Short-term risks for gold include heightened trading emotions and potential liquidity risks during major market events, despite its long-term investment appeal [4][36] Group 4 - The adjustment in the market reflects deeper issues, including high valuations of US financial assets, weakening service sectors, and potential instability in the financial system [5][42] - Mid-term investment recommendations include focusing on domestic industries with recovering demand, such as food and beverage, aviation, and coal [5][42] - In the context of recovering manufacturing activities in emerging markets, upstream resources and capital goods are expected to outperform, while non-bank financials will benefit from the ongoing activation of corporate funds [5][42]