SINOLINK SECURITIES(SH:600109) 智通财经网·2025-10-19 12:00Core Viewpoint - The recent market adjustment is attributed to high valuations of U.S. financial assets relative to GDP, weakening service sector, and emerging contradictions in technology development, indicating that the true bull market for Chinese assets has not yet begun [1][2][5]. Market Adjustment Insights - The adjustment in the A-share market is not primarily driven by trade relations but rather by deeper economic factors, including high U.S. financial asset valuations and a weakening service sector [2]. - Recent communications between U.S. Treasury Secretary and Chinese officials, along with easing concerns over U.S. regional bank bad debts, have led to a short-term market rebound, reducing the likelihood of a sharp decline [2]. Domestic Economic Indicators - Financial data shows a seasonal increase in new corporate medium-to-long-term loans and an above-seasonal growth in new household loans, indicating a potential recovery in terminal demand that could benefit midstream manufacturing and downstream profits [3]. - The year-on-year growth rate of PPI has rebounded, particularly in upstream industries, suggesting a stabilization in prices due to ongoing anti-involution efforts [3]. - China's reliance on U.S. trade has decreased, with a notable recovery in overall export growth despite low year-on-year growth in exports to the U.S. [3]. Long-term Asset Considerations - Factors supporting gold's strength include expectations of interest rate cuts, geopolitical risks leading to a weaker dollar, and persistent government deficits abroad [4]. - The rapid increase in gold prices since late August has coincided with volatility in equity markets, indicating a shift in asset allocation preferences among investors [4]. Structural Changes in Investment - The high valuations of U.S. financial assets and weakening service sector are exerting pressure on global technology advancements, with adjustments in Chinese assets being a normal part of the transition process [5][6]. - Recommended investment focus includes short-term attention on domestic industries with recovering sentiment, such as food and beverage, aviation, and coal [6]. - Mid-term investment should prioritize physical assets, including upstream resources (copper, aluminum, oil, gold) and capital goods (engineering machinery, power grid equipment) [6].