管涛：国际储备货币体系加速多极化

Core Viewpoint - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has reported a decline in the dollar's share of global foreign exchange reserves, indicating a trend towards a more multipolar international reserve currency system, with the dollar's share falling to a 30-year low of 56.32% as of the end of Q2 [1][11]. Group 1: Dollar Reserve Share Decline - The dollar's share of global foreign exchange reserves decreased from 57.79% to 56.32%, a drop of 1.47 percentage points, marking the 11th consecutive quarter below 60% [1]. - The decline is attributed to a 7.1% depreciation of the dollar index during the same quarter, which contributed to a negative valuation effect [1][2]. - If exchange rates remained stable, the dollar's reserve share would have only slightly decreased to 57.67%, a drop of 0.13 percentage points [2]. Group 2: Euro's Performance - The euro's reserve share increased from 20% to 21.13%, a rise of 1.13 percentage points, but this was largely due to a 9% appreciation against the dollar, which masked the actual change in reserve share [2]. - Without the exchange rate effect, the euro's reserve share would have decreased by 0.04 percentage points to 19.96% [2]. Group 3: U.S. Long-term Securities Holdings - As of June, official foreign assets (excluding international organizations) held $67,395 billion in U.S. long-term securities, closely aligning with the IMF's reported global dollar reserve balance of $67,733 billion [5]. - The breakdown of these holdings includes $38,191 billion in U.S. Treasury securities (56.7%), $5,078 billion in government agency debt (7.5%), $2,185 billion in corporate bonds (3.2%), and $21,941 billion in U.S. equities (32.6%) [5]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Valuation Effects - The U.S. stock market experienced significant volatility, with a 4.8% decline in Q1 followed by an 11% rebound in Q2, impacting the valuation of U.S. equities held as dollar reserves [8]. - In Q1, official foreign assets recorded a valuation loss of $19.7 billion, while in Q2, they saw a valuation gain of $2,152 billion, indicating a strong influence of asset price fluctuations on reserve valuations [8]. Group 5: Trends in International Capital Flows - In Q2, official foreign assets net purchased $51 billion in U.S. long-term securities, a 94.4% decrease from the previous quarter, highlighting a shift in investment strategy [9]. - The net buying of U.S. equities increased to $237 billion, while U.S. Treasury securities saw a net selling of $66 billion, indicating a preference for riskier assets over safe-haven investments [9]. Group 6: Global Reserve Currency Dynamics - The trend towards a multipolar currency system is linked to the concept of "de-dollarization," which involves reducing reliance on the dollar in international trade and finance [11]. - Despite the decline in the dollar's reserve share, it remains dominant in global foreign exchange transactions, accounting for 89.2% of daily trading volume as of April [19].