乌克兰发动能源绞杀战的严重后果：俄罗斯40%炼油产能一度瘫痪

Core Insights - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict has evolved into a "strangulation war" focused on energy facilities, with both sides aiming to undermine each other's economic potential and national morale [1] Group 1: Ukraine's Strategy - Ukraine employs a "surgical strike" approach, utilizing drone swarms to target Russian oil refineries, resulting in approximately 40% of Russia's refining capacity being temporarily incapacitated [2] - This strategy has led to gasoline shortages and price increases in Russia, forcing the government to temporarily ban fuel exports to stabilize the market [2] Group 2: Russia's Strategy - Russia utilizes a "heavy hammer" approach, conducting systematic and large-scale airstrikes on Ukraine's energy infrastructure, damaging about 60% of Ukraine's natural gas capacity and severely impacting the national power grid [2][4] - The attacks aim not only to cause blackouts but also to destroy Ukraine's entire energy framework, leading to significant challenges in winter heating and electricity supply [4] Group 3: Internal Crises - Ukraine faces a potential "structural collapse" of its energy system, with severe winter conditions exacerbating energy supply issues, threatening critical facilities like hospitals and schools [4] - The ongoing power shortages directly impact industrial production capabilities, with reconstruction of damaged energy facilities requiring substantial funding and time, heavily reliant on unstable Western aid [4] Group 4: Russia's Economic Vulnerability - Russia's energy export revenue is crucial for its national budget, and the ongoing damage to refining capacity poses a long-term risk to its foreign exchange earnings [6] - Western sanctions complicate repair efforts for damaged refineries, exposing vulnerabilities in Russia's industrial system under sanctions [6] Group 5: International Support Dynamics - Ukraine's resistance heavily depends on military, economic, and energy aid from Western allies, with "aid fatigue" and policy fluctuations posing significant strategic risks [7] - Conversely, Russia mitigates some impacts of Western sanctions through its large energy sector and by shifting trade towards Asian markets, receiving technical support from certain countries [9] Group 6: Conclusion on the Conflict - The energy strangulation war results in mutual depletion, with the outcome hinging on the resilience of each country's internal society and the durability of their international support networks [10] - Russia's long-term sustainability is challenged by the continuous damage to its refining capacity, which could ultimately undermine its economic foundation and domestic stability if Ukrainian strikes persist [11]