当外扰成常态

Group 1 - The uncertainty in China-US trade relations has increased due to recent developments such as rare earth controls and Trump's announcement of a potential 100% tariff increase, contrasting with the calmer market response compared to earlier in the year [2][3] - Despite a significant decline in exports to the US due to trade tensions, China's overall export growth has exceeded expectations, highlighting the country's proactive approach to external disturbances [3][4] - The domestic response has focused on debt management and expansion of fiscal spending, but there are signs of rising repayment pressures at the local level, which may impact future land sale revenues [4][5] Group 2 - Looking ahead, the balance of negotiation power between China and the US has shifted since April, increasing the likelihood of reaching a neutral agreement, while domestic policies will emphasize domestic substitution and accelerate cross-border investments [5][6]